Africa’s Top 10 Trends to Watch in 2023

Africa Practice has compiled a comprehensive overview of 10 key trends that are expected to shape the continent in the year ahead. These encompass a wide range of topics from geopolitics and climate change to the economy, elections, and security. The following is a more detailed look at what can be anticipated for Africa in 2023.

Geopolitics, Climate Change and the Energy Transition
Momentum Builds for Greater African Representation
There is a growing momentum for increased African representation in international diplomatic and economic forums. All five permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) have expressed support for the African Union to become the 21st member of the G20. Additionally, there is increasing pressure, including from the United States, for the UNSC to include permanent representation for countries in Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean. However, reforms to the council will likely face more obstacles and prolonged negotiations than accession to the G20.

Frustration Over Climate Change “Double Standards” Set to Intensify
African states are expressing frustration over what they perceive as “double standards” in climate change politics. Leaders have criticized Western countries for pivoting to coal to reduce their reliance on Russian natural gas while refusing to fund new oil and gas projects in Africa. This growing frustration is likely to drive continued pressure on donors to commit funds to environmental preservation in Africa.

Resource Nationalism Rises on Critical Minerals
African countries with large untapped deposits of critical minerals required for the energy transition are becoming increasingly assertive in their attempts to secure additional benefits from mining. This trend is driven by higher commodity prices, supply chain disruptions, and growing environmental activism.

Economy and Business
Investment Turbulence Ahead as Tech Wobbles But China Surges
While the global economy is forecasted to come close to a recession in 2023, growth across sub-Saharan Africa is projected at 3.6%. External turbulence is expected to lead to shifting investment patterns on the continent, with the possibility of renewed interest from Chinese investors. In addition, Africa’s tech sector may face challenges, leading to a greater emphasis on building resilience and diversifying investments.

Central Bankers Grapple with Inflation
Inflation is expected to remain in double digits across much of Africa in 2023, driven by factors such as high dependence on imported fertiliser and petroleum products. While some countries have been able to keep inflation at manageable levels, others have experienced significant inflation rates, complicating economic planning and trade.

Multiple Countries Face Emerging Debt Crises
African finance ministers will closely monitor Ghana’s efforts to restructure its debts and restore public finances, as it sets an example for the rest of the continent. Zambia and Ethiopia are also navigating their own debt restructuring negotiations, as they work to address debt challenges and seek support from international creditors.

Elections
Nigeria’s Leadership Choice and a Potential Run-off
Nigeria is gearing up for its 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections, with a wide-open presidential contest featuring several frontrunners. The outcome of the elections will have significant implications for the country’s economic outlook, security, and population demographic.

DRC Insecurity Provides Pretext for Election Postponement
The Democratic Republic of Congo is scheduled to hold a general election in December 2023, but the country’s leadership could leverage the security situation in the east of the country to postpone the vote. This potential move could have significant regional implications and affect efforts such as the African Continental Free Trade Area implementation.

Security
New Initiatives to Tackle Sahel Insecurity Spillover
The spillover of insecurity from countries in the western part of the Sahel is expected to become more acute in 2023. Efforts to enhance security collaboration and cooperation are underway, including the formation of a joint military force to combat jihadist groups in the region. However, challenges such as deteriorating bilateral relations could impact progress.

East African Community Gets Involved in Eastern DRC
The chronic conflict in eastern DRC has drawn the involvement of several African states in both diplomatic and military capacities. The East African Community (EAC) has deployed a joint military force to the region, marking the bloc’s first major military intervention in a member state since its re-establishment in 2000.

Looking ahead, these trends will undoubtedly shape the political, economic, and security landscape of Africa in 2023. As the continent navigates these developments, the implications for both regional and global dynamics will be closely observed.