Lithium: Nigeria’s New Commodity and Potential Conflict
Nigeria, a nation renowned for its oil reserves, has recently uncovered extensive deposits of Lithium, a highly coveted metal utilised in rechargeable batteries for mobile phones, electric vehicles, and grid storage. This revelation has instilled hopes of a burgeoning mining industry in the country. Nevertheless, as is the case with any valuable resource, the potential for conflict regarding the control of the lithium reserves is a mounting concern.
Amid the global shift towards sustainable energy, the demand for lithium has surged, propelling its price from £4,600 per tonne in 2020 to over £61,000 in 2022. With the worldwide electric vehicle market anticipated to reach £646.23 billion by 2030, the demand for essential metals such as lithium is poised to increase by approximately 500 per cent by 2050.
Although the majority of the world’s lithium currently originates from countries like Australia, Chile, Argentina, and China, these nations are incapable of meeting the escalating global demand. This has led to a pivot in the pursuit of lithium to Africa, with substantial mining activities already underway in countries such as Zimbabwe, Namibia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, and Ghana.
Nigeria has also entered the race for lithium, with the competition for control of the resources growing increasingly fierce. Tesla, a prominent electric vehicle manufacturer, has shown interest in establishing a trade partnership with the Nigerian government for lithium mining, yet the proposal was rejected unless Tesla consented to establish a battery manufacturing plant in Nigeria. Despite this, a Chinese company has been authorised to construct a lithium-processing facility in Kaduna State, underscoring the burgeoning demand for Nigeria’s lithium and the desire to control its exploitation.
However, Nigeria’s history of resource disputes, exacerbated by disagreements over access and unequal distribution of benefits, raises apprehensions about the potential for violence over the freshly unveiled lithium reserves. This is compounded by the fact that copious amounts of sought-after resources often attract entities seeking to finance illicit activities, as evidenced in Nigeria’s Zamfara state, where illegal gold mining has fuelled banditry.
The potential for lithium-driven violence in Nigeria could materialise in various forms, including intra- and inter-community disputes over land ownership, conflicts between communities, exploration companies, and the government, and illicit mining activities conducted by armed groups, including terrorists.
The Nigerian Geological Survey (NGSA), the governmental entity responsible for mineral exploration and mapping, has predominantly concentrated on apprehending illicit miners and defaulters, but lacks a comprehensive strategy for managing lithium and mitigating potential violence. Consequently, numerous stakeholders are urging the government to craft policies to govern lithium exploration, exportation, mining, and production, underscored by the necessity for legislation to enforce environmental impact assessments, safety regulations, community involvement, and equitable benefit distribution.
Nigeria possesses the potential to emerge as a major player in the global lithium market, yet it must navigate the challenges and hazards associated with this valuable resource. Enhanced regulatory frameworks and stringent monitoring of Nigeria’s natural resources, particularly lithium, are imperative to ensure sustainable growth, environmental preservation, ethical trade, and national security. Nigeria has the chance to learn from its past encounters with resources like oil and act promptly to seize the opportunities presented by lithium, while mitigating the risk of violence and instability.
